Posted: 08 Feb 2005, 11:04
Von: "Steve Wieck" <stevew@white-wolf.com>
An: "'Conclave'" <conclave@list.white-wolf.com>
Betreff: VEKN Conclave - Draft Policy Not To Be Used This Year for EC
Datum: Mon, 7 Feb 2005 21:47:35 -0800
>
> At 02:42 PM 1/28/2005 +0100, Frank Moeller wrote:
> >Robyn Tatu wrote:
> >
> >>128 Players played in the Last Chance
> >>
> >>75 were NOT already qualified.
> >>117 Played in the Championship.
> >>
> >Many thanks, Robyn.
> >
> >So if we would have the exact same number of players 2005:
> >35 out of 117 is a 40% chance to go to the second round for an
already
> >qualified player.
> >5 out of 75 is a 6,6% chance for a non qualified player to go to the
> >second round.
>
> 35 out of 117 = 40% chance? What is wrong with this picture?
>
> My calculator produces 29.9%
>
> 5 out of 75 = 6.7% as you say (rounded).
>
> In the previous year, presumed 19 out of 75 (not sure if you round
> up or down, I'm assuming up) would mean people at the last
> chance qualifier had a 25.3% chance of making it to the "final day"
> whereas those prequalified had a 100% chance. So for those
> claiming that this is discouraging to people not prequalified, I
> suppose it is a bit. But there's actually not that much difference,
> by the numbers. 29.9 : 6.7 = 4.463 ratio of chances to make it
> to the second day whereas last year it was right around 4:1.
> A slightly better advantage for the prequalified but really not too
> much difference (assuming last year's numbers, of course).
Ok, I'm no LSJ when it comes to math, but I think theirs is some funny
math going on here.
Let's assume the goal of a competitive player (who cares nothing for the
wonderful social and travel experience of an EC) is to make the finals
of the EC. They want to be one of the top 5 players to sit down and go
for the championship ring.
With last year's numbers, if you were already qualified coming into the
EC, then your chances to make the finals would be 5 / 117 = 4.27%
If you were NOT already qualified then your chance is basically 25% to
qualify (because 25% on nonqualified players qualify in a qualifier) and
then the same 4.27% chance to make the finals. So your total chance to
make the finals is 1.07%
With the same numbers under the new system:
You chance to make the finals if you already qualified would be:
35 / 98 (98 comes from 117 players less the 19 that qualified at the
Last Chance Qualifier (LCQ), so is the number of prequalified players
that played in this last year's EC) = 35.71% to pass Day 1 and then 5 /
40 = 12.5% to make the finals on Day 2. So your total chance to make the
finals is 4.46%. That seems darn close to 4.27% to me!
Your chance to make the finals if you were NOT already qualified would
be:
5 / 75 = 6.67% for Day 1 then the same 5 / 40 = 12.5% for Day 2. So your
total chance is .83%. That doesn't seem so different from 1.07%
We could change the numbers of course to make them match last year's
chances even more closely, but some of this depends on how many people
attend and if they are qualified or not.
Ok, but the other thing I have learned is that math does not equal
marketing and certainly (for many people) does not mean fun. I
understand that even if the chances are very close to the same, part of
the fun is playing in the Championship whether you make the finals or
not. So with a 25% chance to make the finals, more people will come and
try in the LCQ than if the chance is only 6.67% to get to play in the
final day's tournament rounds.
I think there has been enough opposition and concern about this change
that we will NOT implement this change of format this year. We will
leave the EC to run in the same format as the prior years with the LCQ
on day 1 and the Championship on Day 2.
We will see how the 3 day format works at Gen Con this year and then
decide if the 3 day format is something we want for the NAC and EC 2006.
Steve
White Wolf
